Value bet: CDS Tampico Madero to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCA La Paz to win ✗41% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.88
CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero preview and prediction
The match
CA La Paz host CDS Tampico Madero in the Liga De Expansión MX on Saturday 28 March, with kick-off at 04:00 (WAT) at Estadio Guaycura. CA La Paz are 1st with 30 points from 15 games (top of the table), while CDS Tampico Madero sit 14th on 15 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
CA La Paz's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
CDS Tampico Madero's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Tlaxcala 0–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for CA La Paz and 1.3 for CDS Tampico Madero. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CA La Paz 41%, draw 23%, CDS Tampico Madero 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Value angle: CDS Tampico Madero to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: CA La Paz 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CA La Paz41%fair 2.42 · @2.26
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
CDS Tampico Madero36%fair 2.81 · @3.00
2.75Expected goals
1.44CA La Paz xG
1.31CDS Tampico Madero xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: CA La Paz 1.4 – 1.3 CDS Tampico Madero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CA La Paz to win✗
41%
2.42
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.88
–
Form
CA La Paz – last 5
WDWWL
21 Mar
vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Cancún
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Tlaxcala
2–0
W
5 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
3–0
W
1 Mar
@ Monarcas
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
CDS Tampico Madero – last 5
DWLWW
23 Mar
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
19 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
3–1
W
14 Mar
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–1
L
9 Mar
vs Dorados
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ Cancún
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CA La Paz and CDS Tampico Madero.
What is the prediction for CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
On our numbers CA La Paz have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and CDS Tampico Madero 36%.
How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our predicted score is CA La Paz 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero?
CA La Paz vs CDS Tampico Madero (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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