Value bet: Leones Negros UDG to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlebrijes de Oaxaca to win ✗42% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.32
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG preview and prediction
The match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca host Leones Negros UDG in the Liga De Expansión MX on Saturday 28 March, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th with 22 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd on 30 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to CA La Paz 0–4 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Leones Negros UDG's last 4: DLDD Most recently they drew with Dorados 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.3 for Leones Negros UDG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 62%.
Value angle: Leones Negros UDG to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca42%fair 2.36 · @2.12
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.45
Leones Negros UDG35%fair 2.88 · @3.25
2.83Expected goals
1.50Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
1.33Leones Negros UDG xG
62%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.5 – 1.3 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win✗
42%
2.36
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alebrijes de Oaxaca / FT Alebrijes de Oaxaca✗
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.32
–
Form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
LWLWLD
21 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–4
L
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
22 Feb
@ Atlante FC
0–1
L
14 Feb
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leones Negros UDG – last 4
DLDD
15 Mar
@ Dorados
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
15 Feb
vs Tepatitlán
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Leones Negros UDG.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones Negros UDG 35%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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