Value bet: Spokane Velocity to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpokane Velocity to win64% · @1.85
Double chanceSpokane Velocity or draw86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–016% · fair 6.36
Spokane Velocity vs Naples preview and prediction
The match
The USL League One sees Spokane Velocity take on Naples on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at One Spokane Stadium. Spokane Velocity are 5th with 54 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Naples sit 8th on 46 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Spokane Velocity's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Corpus Christi 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Naples's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to One Knoxville 0–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Spokane Velocity and 0.7 for Naples. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.
Safer route: Spokane Velocity or draw (86%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Spokane Velocity to win at 1.85 – 64% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Spokane Velocity 1–0 Naples. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spokane Velocity64%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.25
Naples14%fair 6.94 · @3.90
2.41Expected goals
1.75Spokane Velocity xG
0.66Naples xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Spokane Velocity 1.7 – 0.7 Naples expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spokane Velocity to win
64%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Spokane Velocity or draw
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.90
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Spokane Velocity ahead at half-time
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spokane Velocity / FT Spokane Velocity
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
16%
6.36
–
Form
Spokane Velocity – last 6
DLWWDL
3 May
@ Corpus Christi
0–0
D
26 Apr
@ Sacramento Republic
0–4
L
12 Apr
vs Richmond Kickers
3–1
W
8 Apr
vs Alta
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Boise
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Charlotte Independence
0–4
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Naples – last 6
LLLWWW
3 May
vs One Knoxville
0–3
L
30 Apr
@ Miami FC
1–4
L
16 Apr
vs Orlando City SC
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Greenville Triumph
1–0
W
1 Apr
vs America CFL Spurs
3–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spokane Velocity and Naples.
What is the prediction for Spokane Velocity vs Naples?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Spokane Velocity vs Naples?
On our numbers Spokane Velocity have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Naples 14%.
How many goals will there be in Spokane Velocity vs Naples?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spokane Velocity vs Naples?
Our predicted score is Spokane Velocity 1–0 Naples, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Spokane Velocity vs Naples?
Spokane Velocity vs Naples (USL League One) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at One Spokane Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
