Value bet: Forward Madison to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarasota Paradise to win ✗39% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.98
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison preview and prediction
The match
Sarasota Paradise host Forward Madison in the USL League One on Sunday 3 May, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Premier Sports Campus. Sarasota Paradise are 11th with 40 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Forward Madison sit 4th on 56 points (in the top four). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sarasota Paradise's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Tampa Bay Rowdies 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Forward Madison's last 4: LWLW Most recently they lost to Lexington 2–4 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Forward Madison arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Sarasota Paradise and 1.2 for Forward Madison. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sarasota Paradise 39%, draw 24%, Forward Madison 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Forward Madison to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Forward Madison. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sarasota Paradise39%fair 2.59 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.20
Forward Madison37%fair 2.67 · @3.10
2.38Expected goals
1.20Sarasota Paradise xG
1.18Forward Madison xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sarasota Paradise 1.2 – 1.2 Forward Madison expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarasota Paradise to win✗
39%
2.59
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarasota Paradise / FT Sarasota Paradise✗
21%
4.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.98
–
Form
Sarasota Paradise – last 6
LWLLLW
26 Apr
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
0–2
L
22 Apr
vs Corpus Christi
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Naples
0–2
L
9 Apr
@ Westchester SC
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs One Knoxville
1–2
L
29 Mar
vs Portland Hearts of Pine
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Forward Madison – last 4
LWLW
26 Apr
@ Lexington
2–4
L
29 Mar
@ Naples
1–0
W
19 Mar
@ Flint City Bucks
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ One Knoxville
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sarasota Paradise and Forward Madison.
What is the prediction for Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
On our numbers Sarasota Paradise have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Forward Madison 37%.
How many goals will there be in Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Our predicted score is Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Forward Madison, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison?
Sarasota Paradise vs Forward Madison (USL League One) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Premier Sports Campus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
