Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Lexington to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLexington to win ✗39% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.84
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington preview and prediction
The match
Phoenix Rising host Lexington in the USL Championship on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium. Phoenix Rising are 8th with 40 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Lexington sit 4th on 48 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Phoenix Rising's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Orange County SC 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Lexington's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Las Vegas Lights 5–3 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.5 per game.
Lexington arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 August 2026, finished Lexington 1–0 Phoenix Rising.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Phoenix Rising and 1.5 for Lexington. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Lexington to win at 2.90 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Phoenix Rising 1–1 Lexington. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Phoenix Rising38%fair 2.60 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.40
Lexington39%fair 2.55 · @2.90
3.02Expected goals
1.50Phoenix Rising xG
1.52Lexington xG
63%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Phoenix Rising 1.5 – 1.5 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
On our numbers Phoenix Rising have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lexington 39%.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Phoenix Rising 1–1 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Phoenix Rising vs Lexington?
Phoenix Rising vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hartford Athletic2
Rhode Island1
Louisville City0
Detroit City0
Pittsburgh Riverhounds2
Birmingham Legion1
Tampa Bay Rowdies2
Sporting JAX0