USL Championship · USA · Al Lang StadiumTampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX prediction & analysis
Not both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.98 · bookmaker 1.83 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.4 – 0.8 Sporting JAX expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tampa Bay Rowdies are clear favourites at home with a 72% chance of winning, against 10% for Sporting JAX.
Tampa Bay Rowdies have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Sporting JAX have 0 points from their last 6 (0W 0D 6L), averaging 0.3 scored and 2.7 conceded. Tampa Bay Rowdies come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.4 for Tampa Bay Rowdies, 0.8 for Sporting JAX). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 2 meetings, Tampa Bay Rowdies have won 2, Sporting JAX have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 50% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.83 is close to our fair price of 1.98.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tampa Bay Rowdies to win ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.12 |
| Double chance | Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.12 | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Half-time result | Tampa Bay Rowdies ahead at half-time ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Tampa Bay Rowdies / FT Tampa Bay Rowdies ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✓ | 12% | 8.51 | – |
Form
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Detroit City | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Indy Eleven | 3–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Miami FC | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Birmingham Legion | 4–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Hartford Athletic | 1–3 | L |
Sporting JAX – last 6
| 22 Oct | vs Louisville City | 0–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Birmingham Legion | 0–1 | L |
| 1 Oct | @ Miami FC | 1–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Loudoun United | 1–4 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Hartford Athletic | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Rhode Island | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
| 7 Jun 2026 | Sporting JAX v Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–2 |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Sporting JAX v Tampa Bay Rowdies | 0–1 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 |
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Lexington3Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?
On our numbers Tampa Bay Rowdies have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sporting JAX 10%.
How many goals will there be in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX?
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Al Lang Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.