FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
FC Tulsa or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.29 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.29Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Tulsa to win ✓57% · @1.85
Double chanceFC Tulsa or draw ✓80% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.19
FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees FC Tulsa take on New Mexico United on Thursday 1 October, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at ONEOK Field. FC Tulsa are 7th with 43 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table).
Form guide
FC Tulsa's last 5: DDLDW Most recently they drew with El Paso Locomotive 1–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
New Mexico United's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Sacramento Republic 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded.
FC Tulsa arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 August 2026, finished New Mexico United 1–0 FC Tulsa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.6 for FC Tulsa and 0.8 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Tulsa 57%, draw 23%, New Mexico United 20%.
Safer route: FC Tulsa or draw (80%) at 1.29.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Tulsa or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.29, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Tulsa 1–0 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Tulsa57%fair 1.76 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.50
New Mexico United20%fair 5.08 · @3.50
2.46Expected goals
1.63FC Tulsa xG
0.83New Mexico United xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: FC Tulsa 1.6 – 0.8 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is FC Tulsa or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers FC Tulsa have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and New Mexico United 20%.
How many goals will there be in FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is FC Tulsa 1–0 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United?
FC Tulsa vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at ONEOK Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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