USL Championship · USA · Papa Murphy's ParkSacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights prediction & analysis
Sacramento Republic to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sacramento Republic 1.7 – 0.8 Las Vegas Lights expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sacramento Republic are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 19% for Las Vegas Lights.
Sacramento Republic have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (2W 4D 0L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.0 per game. Las Vegas Lights have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.7 for Sacramento Republic, 0.8 for Las Vegas Lights). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 46%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Sacramento Republic have won 0, Las Vegas Lights have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Sacramento Republic to win at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.50 is close to our fair price of 1.66.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sacramento Republic to win ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.50 |
| Double chance | Sacramento Republic or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.43 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic ✗ | 36% | 2.76 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.87 | – |
Form
Sacramento Republic – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ New Mexico United | 3–2 | W |
| 21 Sep | vs San Antonio | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Detroit City | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Orange County SC | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Monterey Bay | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs Phoenix Rising | 2–2 | D |
Las Vegas Lights – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Hartford Athletic | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Orange County SC | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs New Mexico United | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Charleston Battery | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Lexington | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Brooklyn | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 2026 | Las Vegas Lights v Sacramento Republic | 1–1 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 |
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Indy Eleven0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
Our pick is Sacramento Republic to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
On our numbers Sacramento Republic have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Las Vegas Lights 19%.
How many goals will there be in Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
When is Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Papa Murphy's Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.