Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Phoenix Rising take on Monterey Bay on Sunday 19 July, kicking off at 03:30 (WAT) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium. Phoenix Rising are 8th with 40 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Monterey Bay sit 12th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Phoenix Rising's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Alta 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Monterey Bay's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Las Vegas Lights 2–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Monterey Bay arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.8 for Phoenix Rising and 1.0 for Monterey Bay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Phoenix Rising 57%, draw 23%, Monterey Bay 19%.
Safer route: Phoenix Rising or draw (81%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Phoenix Rising 1–1 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Phoenix Rising57%fair 1.75 · @1.77
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.60
Monterey Bay19%fair 5.13 · @3.85
2.78Expected goals
1.82Phoenix Rising xG
0.96Monterey Bay xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–06%
3–06%
From our goals model: Phoenix Rising 1.8 – 1.0 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Phoenix Rising to win✓
57%
1.75
1.77
Double chance
Phoenix Rising or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.45
Half-time result
Phoenix Rising ahead at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Phoenix Rising / FT Phoenix Rising✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.84
–
Form
Phoenix Rising – last 6
LLLDLL
12 Jul
@ Alta
1–2
L
5 Jul
@ Colorado Springs
1–3
L
21 Jun
vs Oakland Roots
3–4
L
14 Jun
@ El Paso Locomotive
1–1
D
11 Jun
vs Louisville City
0–2
L
7 Jun
@ New Mexico United
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 6
LDWLWW
12 Jul
vs Las Vegas Lights
2–3
L
5 Jul
@ San Antonio
0–0
D
21 Jun
vs El Paso Locomotive
1–0
W
18 Jun
@ FC Tulsa
0–2
L
11 Jun
vs Sporting JAX
2–1
W
31 May
vs Loudoun United
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Phoenix Rising and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Phoenix Rising have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Monterey Bay 19%.
How many goals will there be in Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Phoenix Rising 1–1 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay?
Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Wild Horse Pass Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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