Lexington vs New Mexico United preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Lexington take on New Mexico United on Thursday 16 July, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Toyota Stadium. Lexington are 4th with 48 points from 30 games (in the top four), while New Mexico United sit 1st on 52 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Lexington's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Louisville City 2–4 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
New Mexico United's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat El Paso Locomotive 2–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
New Mexico United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Lexington and 0.9 for New Mexico United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lexington 60%, draw 22%, New Mexico United 18%.
Safer route: Lexington or draw (82%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Lexington 2–0 New Mexico United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lexington60%fair 1.66 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.65
New Mexico United18%fair 5.63 · @4.40
2.66Expected goals
1.80Lexington xG
0.85New Mexico United xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Lexington 1.8 – 0.9 New Mexico United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lexington to win✗
60%
1.66
1.67
Double chance
Lexington or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.36
Half-time result
Lexington ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lexington / FT Lexington✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.89
–
Form
Lexington – last 6
LWDWWL
12 Jul
@ Louisville City
2–4
L
4 Jul
@ Tampa Bay Rowdies
4–1
W
21 Jun
vs Indy Eleven
0–0
D
14 Jun
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
31 May
@ El Paso Locomotive
4–1
W
24 May
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
New Mexico United – last 6
WWDWDW
12 Jul
@ El Paso Locomotive
2–0
W
5 Jul
vs Oakland Roots
2–1
W
2 Jul
vs Atlante FC
3–3
D
21 Jun
@ Sacramento Republic
1–0
W
14 Jun
vs Orange County SC
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Phoenix Rising
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lexington and New Mexico United.
What is the prediction for Lexington vs New Mexico United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lexington vs New Mexico United?
On our numbers Lexington have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and New Mexico United 18%.
How many goals will there be in Lexington vs New Mexico United?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lexington vs New Mexico United?
Our predicted score is Lexington 2–0 New Mexico United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Lexington vs New Mexico United?
Lexington vs New Mexico United (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 16 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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