Value bet: Kerry to win @ 2.82 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKerry to win ✗38% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.99
Finn Harps vs Kerry preview and prediction
The match
Finn Harps host Kerry in the First Division on Friday 8 May, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Finn Park.
Form guide
Finn Harps's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Bray Wanderers 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Kerry's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Cork City 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 March 2026, finished Kerry 1–0 Finn Harps.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Finn Harps and 1.2 for Kerry. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finn Harps 37%, draw 24%, Kerry 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Kerry to win at 2.82 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Finn Harps 1–1 Kerry. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finn Harps37%fair 2.68 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.15
Kerry38%fair 2.61 · @2.82
2.38Expected goals
1.18Finn Harps xG
1.20Kerry xG
57%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 1.2 – 1.2 Kerry expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Kerry?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Kerry 38%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Kerry?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 1–1 Kerry, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Kerry?
Finn Harps vs Kerry (First Division) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
