Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Wexford to win @ 1.78 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultWexford to win ✓62% · @1.78
Double chanceWexford or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.53
Wexford vs Finn Harps preview and prediction
The match
Wexford host Finn Harps in the First Division on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Ferrycarrig Park. Wexford are 8th with 42 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Finn Harps sit 10th on 28 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Wexford's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Cobh Ramblers 2–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Finn Harps's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to Athlone Town 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Wexford arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 March 2026, finished Finn Harps 1–1 Wexford.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Wexford and 0.8 for Finn Harps. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Wexford 62%, draw 23%, Finn Harps 16%.
Safer route: Wexford or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Wexford to win at 1.78 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Wexford or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Wexford 1–0 Finn Harps. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wexford62%fair 1.63 · @1.78
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.60
Finn Harps16%fair 6.41 · @4.35
2.62Expected goals
1.82Wexford xG
0.80Finn Harps xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Wexford 1.8 – 0.8 Finn Harps expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Wexford or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Wexford vs Finn Harps?
On our numbers Wexford have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Finn Harps 16%.
How many goals will there be in Wexford vs Finn Harps?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wexford vs Finn Harps?
Our predicted score is Wexford 1–0 Finn Harps, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Wexford vs Finn Harps?
Wexford vs Finn Harps (First Division) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Ferrycarrig Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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