Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: UCD to win @ 1.78 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUCD to win ✓63% · @1.78
Double chanceUCD or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.70
UCD vs Longford Town preview and prediction
The match
The First Division sees UCD take on Longford Town on Friday 1 May, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at UCD Bowl. UCD are 2nd with 56 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Longford Town sit 5th on 52 points (in the top half).
Form guide
UCD's last 5: WWDDW Most recently they beat Treaty United 3–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Longford Town's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Cobh Ramblers 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 6. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
UCD arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for UCD and 0.6 for Longford Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: UCD 63%, draw 20%, Longford Town 17%.
Safer route: UCD or draw (83%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.80.
Value angle: UCD to win at 1.78 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was UCD or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: UCD 1–0 Longford Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UCD63%fair 1.58 · @1.78
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.50
Longford Town17%fair 6.01 · @4.45
2.20Expected goals
1.58UCD xG
0.62Longford Town xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: UCD 1.6 – 0.6 Longford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UCD to win✓
63%
1.58
1.78 ▲
Double chance
UCD or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UCD / FT UCD✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.70
–
Form
UCD – last 6
WWDDWW
24 Apr
@ Treaty United
3–0
W
17 Apr
vs Finn Harps
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Kerry
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Wexford
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Athlone Town
2–0
W
27 Mar
vs Cobh Ramblers
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Longford Town – last 6
DLDLDD
17 Apr
@ Cobh Ramblers
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Athlone Town
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Treaty United
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Cork City
1–2
L
27 Feb
@ Kerry
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Bray Wanderers
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UCD and Longford Town.
Our pick is UCD or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win UCD vs Longford Town?
On our numbers UCD have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Longford Town 17%.
How many goals will there be in UCD vs Longford Town?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UCD vs Longford Town?
Our predicted score is UCD 1–0 Longford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is UCD vs Longford Town?
UCD vs Longford Town (First Division) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at UCD Bowl.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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