Finn Harps vs Treaty United preview and prediction
The match
Treaty United travel to Finn Park in the First Division on Friday 13 March (20:45 WAT) to face Finn Harps. Finn Harps are 10th with 28 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Treaty United sit 9th on 42 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Finn Harps's last 4: DDWL Most recently they drew with Wexford 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Treaty United's last 4: DLLL Most recently they drew with Kerry 2–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Finn Harps arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Finn Harps and 1.1 for Treaty United. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Finn Harps 45%, draw 22%, Treaty United 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Finn Harps 1–1 Treaty United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Finn Harps45%fair 2.23 · @2.26
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.35
Treaty United33%fair 3.00 · @3.05
2.43Expected goals
1.33Finn Harps xG
1.10Treaty United xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Finn Harps 1.3 – 1.1 Treaty United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Finn Harps to win✗
45%
2.23
2.26
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Finn Harps / FT Finn Harps✗
24%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.64
–
Form
Finn Harps – last 4
DDWL
6 Mar
vs Wexford
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Cobh Ramblers
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs UCD
2–1
W
13 Feb
@ Athlone Town
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Treaty United – last 4
DLLL
6 Mar
vs Kerry
2–2
D
27 Feb
@ UCD
0–2
L
20 Feb
vs Bray Wanderers
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Cork City
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Finn Harps and Treaty United.
What is the prediction for Finn Harps vs Treaty United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Treaty United?
On our numbers Finn Harps have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Treaty United 33%.
How many goals will there be in Finn Harps vs Treaty United?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Finn Harps vs Treaty United?
Our predicted score is Finn Harps 1–1 Treaty United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Finn Harps vs Treaty United?
Finn Harps vs Treaty United (First Division) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Finn Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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