Value bet: Derry City to win @ 2.94 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultShelbourne to win ✗40% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.68
Shelbourne vs Derry City preview and prediction
The match
Shelbourne host Derry City in the Premier Division on Friday 11 September, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Tolka Park. Shelbourne are 4th with 49 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Derry City sit 5th on 48 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Shelbourne's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Galway United 1–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Derry City's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Dundalk 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Derry City arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 May 2026, finished Derry City 0–0 Shelbourne. Across their last 3 meetings Shelbourne have won 1, Derry City 1, with 1 draw and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Shelbourne and 1.3 for Derry City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Shelbourne 40%, draw 24%, Derry City 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Derry City to win at 2.94 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shelbourne40%fair 2.52 · @2.32
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.35
Derry City37%fair 2.74 · @2.94
2.69Expected goals
1.38Shelbourne xG
1.31Derry City xG
59%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Shelbourne 1.4 – 1.3 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
On our numbers Shelbourne have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Derry City 37%.
How many goals will there be in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Tolka Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
