Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. preview and prediction
The match
The Premier Division sees Derry City take on St Patrick's Athl. on Friday 22 May, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Derry City are 5th with 48 points from 36 games (in the top half), while St Patrick's Athl. sit 3rd on 60 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Derry City's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Drogheda United 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
St Patrick's Athl.'s last 5: WDDWW Most recently they beat Waterford 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
St Patrick's Athl. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 March 2026, finished St Patrick's Athl. 0–0 Derry City.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.2 for Derry City and 1.3 for St Patrick's Athl.. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derry City 36%, draw 24%, St Patrick's Athl. 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Derry City 1–1 St Patrick's Athl.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derry City36%fair 2.78 · @2.78
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
St Patrick's Athl.40%fair 2.51 · @2.50
2.52Expected goals
1.22Derry City xG
1.30St Patrick's Athl. xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Derry City 1.2 – 1.3 St Patrick's Athl. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
On our numbers Derry City have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and St Patrick's Athl. 40%.
How many goals will there be in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our predicted score is Derry City 1–1 St Patrick's Athl., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
