Value bet: Derry City to win @ 3.55 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultShelbourne to win ✗45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.46
Shelbourne vs Derry City preview and prediction
The match
Shelbourne host Derry City in the Premier Division on Friday 17 April, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Tolka Park. Shelbourne are 4th with 49 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Derry City sit 5th on 48 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Shelbourne's last 5: LLDWD Most recently they lost to Shamrock Rovers 2–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Derry City's last 5: DDLDD Most recently they drew with Dundalk 2–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 March 2026, finished Derry City 1–2 Shelbourne.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Shelbourne and 1.2 for Derry City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Shelbourne 45%, draw 22%, Derry City 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Derry City to win at 3.55 – 32% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shelbourne45%fair 2.20 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.20
Derry City32%fair 3.09 · @3.55
2.62Expected goals
1.45Shelbourne xG
1.17Derry City xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Shelbourne 1.4 – 1.2 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
On our numbers Shelbourne have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derry City 32%.
How many goals will there be in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is Shelbourne 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Tolka Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
