Value bet: Dundalk to win @ 2.56 – our chance 44% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDundalk to win ✗44% · @2.56
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 9.88
Dundalk vs Derry City preview and prediction
The match
Derry City travel to Oriel Park in the Premier Division on Friday 10 April (19:45 WAT) to face Dundalk. Dundalk are 6th with 45 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Derry City sit 5th on 48 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Dundalk's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat St Patrick's Athl. 2–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Derry City's last 5: DLDDL Most recently they drew with Sligo Rovers 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Dundalk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Derry City 2–2 Dundalk.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Dundalk and 1.2 for Derry City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dundalk 44%, draw 22%, Derry City 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Dundalk to win at 2.56 – 44% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Dundalk 1–1 Derry City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dundalk44%fair 2.29 · @2.56
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Derry City34%fair 2.91 · @2.68
2.64Expected goals
1.42Dundalk xG
1.22Derry City xG
56%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Dundalk 1.4 – 1.2 Derry City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Dundalk vs Derry City?
On our numbers Dundalk have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derry City 34%.
How many goals will there be in Dundalk vs Derry City?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dundalk vs Derry City?
Our predicted score is Dundalk 1–1 Derry City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Dundalk vs Derry City?
Dundalk vs Derry City (Premier Division) kicks off on Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Oriel Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
