Atlas travel to Estadio Nemesio Diez in the Liga MX on Sunday 15 March (02:00 WAT) to face Toluca. Toluca are 4th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Atlas sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to San Diego 2–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atlas's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 at home. They average 1.6 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.2 for Toluca and 0.9 for Atlas. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 68%, draw 20%, Atlas 13%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.95.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.74, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Toluca 2–1 Atlas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca68%fair 1.48 · @1.33
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @4.60
Atlas13%fair 7.91 · @6.50
3.07Expected goals
2.21Toluca xG
0.86Atlas xG
58%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Toluca 2.2 – 0.9 Atlas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
68%
1.48
1.33
Double chance
Toluca or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Toluca ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.81
–
Form
Toluca – last 6
LWWWWW
12 Mar
@ San Diego
2–3
L
9 Mar
vs FC Juarez
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3–2
W
1 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Necaxa
3–0
W
14 Feb
vs Club Tijuana
1–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atlas – last 5
LWLWL
8 Mar
vs Guadalajara Chivas
1–2
L
5 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ FC Juarez
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Atletico San Luis
3–2
W
15 Feb
@ Pachuca
1–3
L
1.6Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Atlas.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?
On our numbers Toluca have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Atlas 13%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Atlas?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Atlas?
Our predicted score is Toluca 2–1 Atlas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca vs Atlas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nemesio Diez.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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