Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Leon to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeon to win ✗61% · @1.75
Double chanceLeon or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.37
Leon vs Club Tijuana preview and prediction
The match
Leon host Club Tijuana in the Liga MX on Sunday 15 March, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Leon.
Form guide
Leon's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Mazatlán 2–4 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Club Tijuana's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Santos Laguna 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Leon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Leon and 0.9 for Club Tijuana. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leon 61%, draw 24%, Club Tijuana 15%.
Safer route: Leon or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Leon to win at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Leon or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Leon 1–0 Club Tijuana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leon61%fair 1.64 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.50
Club Tijuana15%fair 6.53 · @3.70
2.77Expected goals
1.91Leon xG
0.86Club Tijuana xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Leon 1.9 – 0.9 Club Tijuana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leon to win✗
61%
1.64
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Leon or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Leon ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leon / FT Leon✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.37
–
Form
Leon – last 4
LWWL
7 Mar
@ Mazatlán
2–4
L
1 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santos Laguna
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Monterrey
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Club Tijuana – last 5
LLDDL
9 Mar
vs Santos Laguna
1–2
L
5 Mar
@ Atlas
1–2
L
28 Feb
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Mazatlán
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Toluca
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leon and Club Tijuana.
Our pick is Leon or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leon vs Club Tijuana?
On our numbers Leon have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Club Tijuana 15%.
How many goals will there be in Leon vs Club Tijuana?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leon vs Club Tijuana?
Our predicted score is Leon 1–0 Club Tijuana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Leon vs Club Tijuana?
Leon vs Club Tijuana (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leon.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
