Value bet: Guadalajara Chivas to win @ 1.65 – our chance 67% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuadalajara Chivas to win ✓67% · @1.65
Double chanceGuadalajara Chivas or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗12% · fair 8.30
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas preview and prediction
The match
The Liga MX sees Atlas take on Guadalajara Chivas on Sunday 8 March, kicking off at 02:05 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Atlas are 5th with 27 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Guadalajara Chivas sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atlas's last 4: WLWL Most recently they beat Club Tijuana 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Guadalajara Chivas's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Toluca 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Atlas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.8 for Atlas and 2.1 for Guadalajara Chivas. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 50%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Guadalajara Chivas or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Guadalajara Chivas to win at 1.65 – 67% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Atlas 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlas14%fair 7.00 · @5.20
Draw19%fair 5.29 · @3.70
Guadalajara Chivas67%fair 1.50 · @1.65
2.86Expected goals
0.81Atlas xG
2.05Guadalajara Chivas xG
50%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–212%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Atlas 0.8 – 2.1 Guadalajara Chivas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guadalajara Chivas to win✓
67%
1.50
1.65 ▲
Double chance
Guadalajara Chivas or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.33
Half-time result
Guadalajara Chivas ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guadalajara Chivas / FT Guadalajara Chivas✗
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
12%
8.30
–
Form
Atlas – last 4
WLWL
5 Mar
vs Club Tijuana
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ FC Juarez
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Atletico San Luis
3–2
W
15 Feb
@ Pachuca
1–3
L
1.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Guadalajara Chivas – last 3
LLW
1 Mar
@ Toluca
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Cruz Azul
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Club America
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas.
What is the prediction for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
On our numbers Atlas have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Guadalajara Chivas 67%.
How many goals will there be in Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Our predicted score is Atlas 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas?
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 02:05 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
