Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Pachuca to win @ 1.83 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPachuca to win ✓64% · @1.83
Double chancePachuca or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.86
Pachuca vs Puebla preview and prediction
The match
Pachuca host Puebla in the Liga MX on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 02:06 (WAT) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo. Pachuca are 8th with 22 points from 16 games (in the top half), while Puebla sit 13th on 19 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pachuca's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat Necaxa 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Puebla's last 4: WWLL Most recently they beat Tigres UANL 3–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Pachuca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Pachuca and 0.8 for Puebla. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pachuca 64%, draw 20%, Puebla 16%.
Safer route: Pachuca or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Pachuca to win at 1.83 – 64% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pachuca or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pachuca 1–0 Puebla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pachuca64%fair 1.56 · @1.83
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.60
Puebla16%fair 6.20 · @4.10
2.70Expected goals
1.90Pachuca xG
0.80Puebla xG
54%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Pachuca 1.9 – 0.8 Puebla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pachuca to win✓
64%
1.56
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Pachuca or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.33
Half-time result
Pachuca ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pachuca / FT Pachuca✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.86
–
Form
Pachuca – last 4
WLWW
4 Mar
vs Necaxa
2–1
W
28 Feb
@ Mazatlán
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Tigres UANL
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Atlas
3–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Puebla – last 4
WWLL
5 Mar
vs Tigres UANL
3–1
W
1 Mar
@ Atletico San Luis
1–0
W
21 Feb
vs Club America
0–4
L
14 Feb
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–3
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pachuca and Puebla.
Our pick is Pachuca or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pachuca vs Puebla?
On our numbers Pachuca have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Puebla 16%.
How many goals will there be in Pachuca vs Puebla?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pachuca vs Puebla?
Our predicted score is Pachuca 1–0 Puebla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Pachuca vs Puebla?
Pachuca vs Puebla (Liga MX) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 02:06 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
