Bahia travel to Arena do Grêmio in the Serie A on Thursday 19 November (01:30 WAT) to face Gremio. Gremio are 18th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom three), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points (in the top half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Gremio's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Atletico-MG 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bahia's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Cruzeiro 2–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Gremio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 17 May 2026, finished Bahia 1–1 Gremio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Gremio and 1.3 for Bahia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gremio 37%, draw 26%, Bahia 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.57.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Gremio 1–1 Bahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gremio37%fair 2.68 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.78 · @3.40
Bahia36%fair 2.77 · @2.90
2.67Expected goals
1.33Gremio xG
1.33Bahia xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Gremio 1.3 – 1.3 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Gremio
Bahia
Attack vs Serie A average
-18%
+9%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-1%
Our expected goals here
1.24
1.27
Our own ratings from every Serie A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Gremio vs Bahia?
On our numbers Gremio have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bahia 36%.
How many goals will there be in Gremio vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gremio vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Gremio 1–1 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Gremio vs Bahia?
Gremio vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Thursday 19 November 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena do Grêmio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
