Serie A · Brazil · Arena CondáChapecoense-sc vs Fluminense prediction & analysis
Fluminense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chapecoense-sc 0.9 – 2.0 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Fluminense travel as clear favourites – 61% to win, against 13% for Chapecoense-sc.
Chapecoense-sc have taken 2 points from their last 6 matches (0W 2D 4L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.2 per game. Fluminense have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. Fluminense come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (0.9 for Chapecoense-sc, 2.0 for Fluminense). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 0–2 (11%), 0–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%).
Our pick is Fluminense or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Fluminense to win at 1.80 is our value angle (61% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Fluminense to win ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Double chance | Fluminense or draw ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.73 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.77 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Half-time result | Fluminense ahead at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.16 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense ✗ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 11% | 9.09 | – |
Form
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Botafogo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Oct | vs Atletico Paranaense | 1–4 | L |
| 8 Oct | @ Vitoria | 0–4 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ Atletico Nacional | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | @ Atletico-MG | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Internacional | 1–2 | L |
Fluminense – last 6
| 22 Oct | @ Palmeiras | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | @ Flamengo | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Oct | vs Coritiba | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Corinthians | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapecoense-sc and Fluminense.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 33 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 34 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 33 | -35 | 21 |
More Serie A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Fluminense or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Chapecoense-sc have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fluminense 61%.
How many goals will there be in Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense?
Chapecoense-sc vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena Condá.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.