Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.25 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSao Paulo to win ✓40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 9.47
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama travel to Morumbi in the Serie A on Sunday 18 October (01:00 WAT) to face Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Vasco DA Gama sit 13th on 41 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Vitoria 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Boca Juniors 1–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vasco DA Gama arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Sao Paulo and 1.2 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 40%, draw 24%, Vasco DA Gama 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 3.25 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo40%fair 2.50 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.10
Vasco DA Gama36%fair 2.80 · @3.25
2.51Expected goals
1.30Sao Paulo xG
1.21Vasco DA Gama xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.3 – 1.2 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win✓
40%
2.50
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
9.47
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
WLLWDL
11 Oct
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
8 Oct
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
3 Oct
vs Santos
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Internacional
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Palmeiras
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
WDWWWW
14 Oct
@ Boca Juniors
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs Remo
0–0
D
8 Oct
@ Botafogo
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Coritiba
5–0
W
15 Sep
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Gremio
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vasco DA Gama 36%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Morumbi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
