Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✓67% · @1.53
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.02
Palmeiras vs Bahia preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Palmeiras take on Bahia on Friday 9 October, kicking off at 01:30 (WAT) at Nubank Parque. Palmeiras are 2nd with 73 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points (in the top half). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Gremio 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bahia's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Atletico Paranaense 1–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game.
Bahia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 April 2026, finished Bahia 1–2 Palmeiras.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Palmeiras and 0.7 for Bahia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Palmeiras 67%, draw 21%, Bahia 12%.
Safer route: Palmeiras or draw (88%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Palmeiras to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras67%fair 1.49 · @1.53
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @4.00
Bahia12%fair 8.44 · @5.00
2.61Expected goals
1.94Palmeiras xG
0.67Bahia xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.9 – 0.7 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Palmeiras to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bahia 12%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Bahia?
Palmeiras vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Nubank Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
