Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG prediction & analysis
59%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.60 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.45
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense host Atletico-MG in the Serie A on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT) at Arena da Baixada. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Bahia 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Atletico-MG's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat RB Bragantino 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.2 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 3.60 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.69, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense43%fair 2.33 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Atletico-MG34%fair 2.96 · @3.60
2.57Expected goals
1.38Atletico Paranaense xG
1.19Atletico-MG xG
59%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.4 – 1.2 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✗
43%
2.33
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✗
24%
4.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.45
–
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
WDLDWD
20 Sep
vs Bahia
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Coritiba
3–3
D
6 Sep
@ Cruzeiro
1–3
L
30 Aug
vs Fluminense
3–3
D
25 Aug
@ Botafogo
3–2
W
15 Aug
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
WDWWLL
3 Oct
vs RB Bragantino
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
16 Sep
vs Santos
4–2
W
12 Sep
vs Fluminense
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Santos
0–2
L
5 Sep
@ Sao Paulo
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico-MG 34%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG?
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
