Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Flamengo to win @ 1.79 – our chance 66% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✗66% · @1.79
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✗88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.69
Flamengo vs Palmeiras preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Flamengo take on Palmeiras on Sunday 24 May, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Estádio do Maracanã. Flamengo are 1st with 76 points from 34 games (top of the table), while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 73 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Flamengo's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Estudiantes L.P. 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Palmeiras's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Cerro Porteno 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Flamengo and 0.7 for Palmeiras. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Flamengo to win at 1.79 – 66% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Flamengo or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Flamengo 1–0 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flamengo66%fair 1.51 · @1.79
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Palmeiras12%fair 8.41 · @4.70
2.53Expected goals
1.88Flamengo xG
0.65Palmeiras xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Flamengo 1.9 – 0.7 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✗
66%
1.51
1.79 ▲
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✗
43%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.69
–
Form
Flamengo – last 6
WDLWDW
21 May
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
17 May
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–1
D
15 May
@ Vitoria
0–2
L
10 May
@ Gremio
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Vitoria
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
LDWWDW
21 May
vs Cerro Porteno
0–1
L
17 May
vs Cruzeiro
1–1
D
14 May
@ Jacuipense
4–1
W
5 May
@ Sporting Cristal
2–0
W
30 Apr
@ Cerro Porteno
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Jacuipense
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Palmeiras.
Our pick is Flamengo or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Palmeiras 12%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 1–0 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Palmeiras?
Flamengo vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
