Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Paranaense host Cruzeiro in the Serie A on Wednesday 18 March, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT) at Arena da Baixada. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 60 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 4: LDLL Most recently they lost to Fluminense 2–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cruzeiro's last 4: DLDW Most recently they drew with Vasco DA Gama 3–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Cruzeiro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Atletico Paranaense and 1.2 for Cruzeiro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 58%.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Cruzeiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense45%fair 2.21 · @2.30
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
Cruzeiro33%fair 3.06 · @3.05
2.74Expected goals
1.51Atletico Paranaense xG
1.23Cruzeiro xG
58%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.5 – 1.2 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✓
45%
2.21
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✓
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
11.06
–
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 4
LDLL
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 4
DLDW
16 Mar
vs Vasco DA Gama
3–3
D
12 Mar
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Cruzeiro.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cruzeiro 33%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–1 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro?
Atletico Paranaense vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
