Value bet: Defensa Y Justicia to win @ 3.85 – our chance 33% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Lorenzo to win ✗42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗71% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.12
San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees San Lorenzo take on Defensa Y Justicia on Monday 16 March, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Pedro Bidegain. San Lorenzo are 18th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Defensa Y Justicia sit 14th on 47 points (in the top half).
Form guide
San Lorenzo's last 5: DDDWD Most recently they drew with Boca Juniors 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Defensa Y Justicia's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with Central Cordoba de Santiago 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for San Lorenzo and 0.8 for Defensa Y Justicia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Lorenzo 42%, draw 25%, Defensa Y Justicia 33%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Defensa Y Justicia to win at 3.85 – 33% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: San Lorenzo 0–0 Defensa Y Justicia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Lorenzo42%fair 2.41 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @2.82
Defensa Y Justicia33%fair 2.99 · @3.85
1.77Expected goals
0.96San Lorenzo xG
0.81Defensa Y Justicia xG
50%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–016%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 1.0 – 0.8 Defensa Y Justicia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Lorenzo to win✗
42%
2.41
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.12
–
Form
San Lorenzo – last 5
DDDWD
11 Mar
@ Boca Juniors
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ Talleres Cordoba
0–0
D
24 Feb
vs Instituto Cordoba
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2–0
W
14 Feb
@ Union Santa Fe
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Defensa Y Justicia – last 5
DDDDD
12 Mar
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
1–1
D
2 Mar
vs Lanus
1–1
D
24 Feb
@ Platense
0–0
D
20 Feb
vs Belgrano Cordoba
1–1
D
14 Feb
vs Velez Sarsfield
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Lorenzo and Defensa Y Justicia.
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Defensa Y Justicia 33%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 0–0 Defensa Y Justicia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia?
San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 16 March 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Pedro Bidegain.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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