Value bet: Velez Sarsfield to win @ 3.95 – our chance 31% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstudiantes L.P. to win ✗44% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.80
Estudiantes L.P. vs Velez Sarsfield preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees Estudiantes L.P. take on Velez Sarsfield on Monday 2 March, kicking off at 23:15 (WAT) at Estadio Ciudad de La Plata. Estudiantes L.P. are 11th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Velez Sarsfield sit 6th on 56 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Estudiantes L.P.'s last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Newells Old Boys 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Velez Sarsfield's last 3: DWD Most recently they drew with Deportivo Riestra 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Estudiantes L.P. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Estudiantes L.P. and 0.8 for Velez Sarsfield. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Velez Sarsfield to win at 3.95 – 31% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Velez Sarsfield. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estudiantes L.P.44%fair 2.27 · @2.20
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @2.76
Velez Sarsfield31%fair 3.26 · @3.95
1.76Expected goals
1.00Estudiantes L.P. xG
0.76Velez Sarsfield xG
50%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–017%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Estudiantes L.P. 1.0 – 0.8 Velez Sarsfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estudiantes L.P. to win✗
44%
2.27
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.80
–
Form
Estudiantes L.P. – last 3
WWD
25 Feb
@ Newells Old Boys
2–0
W
20 Feb
vs Sarmiento Junin
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Gimnasia L.P.
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Velez Sarsfield – last 3
DWD
25 Feb
vs Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs River Plate
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Defensa Y Justicia
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estudiantes L.P. and Velez Sarsfield.
What is the prediction for Estudiantes L.P. vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Estudiantes L.P. vs Velez Sarsfield?
On our numbers Estudiantes L.P. have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Velez Sarsfield 31%.
How many goals will there be in Estudiantes L.P. vs Velez Sarsfield?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estudiantes L.P. vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our predicted score is Estudiantes L.P. 0–0 Velez Sarsfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Estudiantes L.P. vs Velez Sarsfield?
Estudiantes L.P. vs Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 2 March 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de La Plata.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tigre2
Gimnasia L.P.2