Value bet: Monterey Bay to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLas Vegas Lights to win ✓45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 9.91
Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees Las Vegas Lights take on Monterey Bay on Sunday 29 March, kicking off at 03:30 (WAT) at Cashman Field. Las Vegas Lights are 11th with 36 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Monterey Bay sit 12th on 24 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Monterey Bay's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Sacramento Republic 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.2 for Monterey Bay. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Vegas Lights 45%, draw 22%, Monterey Bay 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Monterey Bay to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Monterey Bay. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Vegas Lights45%fair 2.20 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Monterey Bay33%fair 3.07 · @3.40
2.69Expected goals
1.48Las Vegas Lights xG
1.20Monterey Bay xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Las Vegas Lights 1.5 – 1.2 Monterey Bay expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Vegas Lights to win✓
45%
2.20
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Vegas Lights / FT Las Vegas Lights✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
9.91
–
Form
Las Vegas Lights – last 2
LD
22 Mar
@ FC Tulsa
2–3
L
8 Mar
@ Orange County SC
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monterey Bay – last 3
DLL
22 Mar
@ Sacramento Republic
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs El Paso Locomotive
0–3
L
8 Mar
vs Oakland Roots
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Vegas Lights and Monterey Bay.
What is the prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay?
On our numbers Las Vegas Lights have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterey Bay 33%.
How many goals will there be in Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay?
Our predicted score is Las Vegas Lights 1–1 Monterey Bay, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay?
Las Vegas Lights vs Monterey Bay (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 03:30 (West Africa Time) at Cashman Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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