Toronto FC vs New York City FC prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: New York City FC to win @ 2.64 – our chance 40% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew York City FC to win ✗40% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Toronto FC vs New York City FC preview and prediction
The match
New York City FC travel to BMO Field in the Major League Soccer on Sunday 30 August (00:30 WAT) to face Toronto FC. Toronto FC are 12th with 39 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while New York City FC sit 11th on 42 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Toronto FC's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Inter Miami 2–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
New York City FC's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with New England Revolution 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Toronto FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 August 2026, finished New York City FC 1–1 Toronto FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for Toronto FC and 1.6 for New York City FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 65%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toronto FC 37%, draw 22%, New York City FC 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.50.
Value angle: New York City FC to win at 2.64 – 40% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toronto FC37%fair 2.68 · @2.40
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.65
New York City FC40%fair 2.48 · @2.64
3.10Expected goals
1.51Toronto FC xG
1.58New York City FC xG
65%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Toronto FC 1.5 – 1.6 New York City FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
On our numbers Toronto FC have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and New York City FC 40%.
How many goals will there be in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Our predicted score is Toronto FC 1–1 New York City FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Toronto FC vs New York City FC?
Toronto FC vs New York City FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at BMO Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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