New York City FC vs Chicago Fire prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: New York City FC to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew York City FC to win ✓45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.19
New York City FC vs Chicago Fire preview and prediction
The match
New York City FC host Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer on Sunday 26 July, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Yankee Stadium. New York City FC are 11th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Chicago Fire sit 4th on 55 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
New York City FC's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Columbus Crew 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Chicago Fire's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Inter Miami 2–3 away. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.6 for New York City FC and 1.4 for Chicago Fire. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: New York City FC 45%, draw 20%, Chicago Fire 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.50.
Value angle: New York City FC to win at 2.40 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: New York City FC 1–1 Chicago Fire. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New York City FC45%fair 2.24 · @2.40
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.65
Chicago Fire35%fair 2.84 · @2.64
3.08Expected goals
1.65New York City FC xG
1.43Chicago Fire xG
64%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: New York City FC 1.6 – 1.4 Chicago Fire expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New York City FC to win✓
45%
2.24
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.56
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New York City FC / FT New York City FC✓
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.19
–
Form
New York City FC – last 6
WLLDWW
23 Jul
@ Columbus Crew
2–1
W
24 May
@ Nashville SC
1–2
L
21 May
@ Columbus Crew
0–1
L
17 May
@ New York Red Bulls
1–1
D
14 May
@ Charlotte
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ New York Red Bulls
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Chicago Fire – last 6
LWWLLW
23 Jul
@ Inter Miami
2–3
L
24 May
vs Toronto FC
2–1
W
14 May
@ DC United
3–1
W
3 May
vs FC Cincinnati
2–3
L
30 Apr
vs St. Louis City
1–2
L
26 Apr
vs Sporting Kansas City
5–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New York City FC and Chicago Fire.
What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
On our numbers New York City FC have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chicago Fire 35%.
How many goals will there be in New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
Our predicted score is New York City FC 1–1 Chicago Fire, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?
New York City FC vs Chicago Fire (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Yankee Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Seattle Sounders0
Minnesota United FC0
Vancouver Whitecaps0
Houston Dynamo3
Austin0
St. Louis City1
Colorado Rapids0