New York City FC vs St. Louis City prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
New York City FC or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: New York City FC to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew York City FC to win ✗63% · @1.73
Double chanceNew York City FC or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 8.87
New York City FC vs St. Louis City preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees New York City FC take on St. Louis City on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Yankee Stadium. New York City FC are 11th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while St. Louis City sit 3rd on 54 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
St. Louis City's last 4: WLLL Most recently they beat New England Revolution 3–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for New York City FC and 0.9 for St. Louis City. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New York City FC 63%, draw 23%, St. Louis City 14%.
Safer route: New York City FC or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.73.
Value angle: New York City FC to win at 1.73 – 63% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was New York City FC or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: New York City FC 2–0 St. Louis City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New York City FC63%fair 1.59 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.80
St. Louis City14%fair 7.00 · @4.40
2.89Expected goals
2.02New York City FC xG
0.88St. Louis City xG
56%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: New York City FC 2.0 – 0.9 St. Louis City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
New York City FC to win✗
63%
1.59
1.73 ▲
Double chance
New York City FC or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Half-time result
New York City FC ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New York City FC / FT New York City FC✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
8.87
–
Form
New York City FC – last 2
WD
15 Mar
vs Colorado Rapids
3–1
W
23 Feb
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
St. Louis City – last 4
WLLL
22 Mar
vs New England Revolution
3–1
W
15 Mar
@ Los Angeles FC
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Seattle Sounders
0–1
L
2 Mar
@ San Diego
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New York City FC and St. Louis City.
What is the prediction for New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
Our pick is New York City FC or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
On our numbers New York City FC have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and St. Louis City 14%.
How many goals will there be in New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
Our predicted score is New York City FC 2–0 St. Louis City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
New York City FC vs St. Louis City (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Yankee Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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