Value bet: England to win @ 1.74 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEngland to win ✓63% · @1.74
Double chanceEngland or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.55
England vs Croatia preview and prediction
The match
The World Cup sees England take on Croatia on Wednesday 17 June, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at AT&T Stadium.
Form guide
England's last 4: WWLD Most recently they beat Costa Rica 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Croatia's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat Slovenia 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for England and 0.7 for Croatia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: England 63%, draw 24%, Croatia 12%.
Safer route: England or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: England to win at 1.74 – 63% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: England 1–0 Croatia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
England63%fair 1.58 · @1.74
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.55
Croatia12%fair 8.23 · @5.00
2.47Expected goals
1.80England xG
0.67Croatia xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: England 1.8 – 0.7 Croatia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
England to win✓
63%
1.58
1.74 ▲
Double chance
England or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
England ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT England / FT England✗
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.55
–
Form
England – last 4
WWLD
10 Jun
vs Costa Rica
3–0
W
6 Jun
vs New Zealand
1–0
W
31 Mar
vs Japan
0–1
L
27 Mar
vs Uruguay
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Croatia – last 4
WLLW
7 Jun
vs Slovenia
2–1
W
2 Jun
vs Belgium
0–2
L
1 Apr
@ Brazil
1–3
L
27 Mar
@ Colombia
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between England and Croatia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win England vs Croatia?
On our numbers England have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Croatia 12%.
How many goals will there be in England vs Croatia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for England vs Croatia?
Our predicted score is England 1–0 Croatia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is England vs Croatia?
England vs Croatia (World Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 17 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at AT&T Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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