Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.35 – our chance 52% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultItaly to win ✓71% · @1.26
Double chanceItaly or draw ✓89% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.35
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓12% · fair 8.13
Italy vs Northern Ireland preview and prediction
The match
Northern Ireland travel to New Balance Arena in the World Cup Qualification Europe on Thursday 26 March (20:45 WAT) to face Italy.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.3 for Italy and 0.8 for Northern Ireland. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.35 – 52% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Italy 2–0 Northern Ireland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Italy71%fair 1.40 · @1.26
Draw17%fair 5.74 · @5.20
Northern Ireland11%fair 8.82 · @13.50
3.04Expected goals
2.26Italy xG
0.77Northern Ireland xG
52%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Italy 2.3 – 0.8 Northern Ireland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Italy to win✓
71%
1.40
1.26
Double chance
Italy or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.35 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.38
Half-time result
Italy ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Italy / FT Italy✗
47%
2.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
12%
8.13
–
Form
Italy
No recent results on record.
Northern Ireland
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Italy and Northern Ireland.
What is the prediction for Italy vs Northern Ireland?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Italy vs Northern Ireland?
On our numbers Italy have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Northern Ireland 11%.
How many goals will there be in Italy vs Northern Ireland?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Italy vs Northern Ireland?
Our predicted score is Italy 2–0 Northern Ireland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Italy vs Northern Ireland?
Italy vs Northern Ireland (World Cup Qualification Europe) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Türkiye1
Romania0
Czech Republic2
Rep. Of Ireland2
Denmark4
FYR Macedonia0
Poland2
Albania1
Slovakia3
Kosovo4
Ukraine1
Sweden3
Wales1
Bosnia & Herzegovina1