Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.81
Homeboyz vs Mathare United preview and prediction
The match
Mathare United travel to Bukhungu Stadium in the FKF Premier League on Saturday 4 April (13:00 WAT) to face Homeboyz. Homeboyz are 17th with 5 points from 5 games (in the bottom three), while Mathare United sit 16th on 5 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Homeboyz's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Posta Rangers FC 2–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Mathare United's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with Murang'a SEAL 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Homeboyz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Homeboyz and 0.9 for Mathare United. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Homeboyz 55%, draw 11%, Mathare United 34%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 82% chance. Predicted score: Homeboyz 1–0 Mathare United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Homeboyz55%fair 1.82
Draw11%fair 9.09
Mathare United34%fair 2.94
2.18Expected goals
1.30Homeboyz xG
0.88Mathare United xG
45%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–010%
2–18%
From our goals model: Homeboyz 1.3 – 0.9 Mathare United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Homeboyz to win✓
55%
1.82
–
Double chance
Either team to win✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Homeboyz / FT Homeboyz✓
27%
3.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.81
–
Form
Homeboyz – last 6
WDLWDW
28 Mar
@ Posta Rangers FC
2–0
W
22 Mar
vs Bandari
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Tusker
0–2
L
2 Mar
vs APS Bomet
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Sofapaka
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mathare United – last 3
DLD
22 Mar
@ Murang'a SEAL
1–1
D
25 Feb
vs Shabana
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Homeboyz and Mathare United.
What is the prediction for Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance.
Who will win Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
On our numbers Homeboyz have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Mathare United 34%.
How many goals will there be in Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Our predicted score is Homeboyz 1–0 Mathare United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Homeboyz vs Mathare United?
Homeboyz vs Mathare United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Bukhungu Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Kariobangi Sharks0