Mathare United vs AFC Leopards prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
AFC Leopards or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: AFC Leopards to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAFC Leopards to win62% · @1.95
Double chanceAFC Leopards or draw86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score64% · fair 1.56
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals66% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–120% · fair 4.95
Mathare United vs AFC Leopards preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees Mathare United take on AFC Leopards on Saturday 14 March, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT) at Moi International Sports Centre. Mathare United are 16th with 5 points from 6 games (in the bottom three), while AFC Leopards sit 3rd on 10 points (in the top four).
Form guide
AFC Leopards's last 4: WLWD Most recently they beat Shabana 5–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.5 for Mathare United and 1.5 for AFC Leopards. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mathare United 14%, draw 24%, AFC Leopards 62%.
Safer route: AFC Leopards or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Value angle: AFC Leopards to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was AFC Leopards or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mathare United 0–1 AFC Leopards. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mathare United14%fair 7.11 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.00
AFC Leopards62%fair 1.63 · @1.95
1.98Expected goals
0.52Mathare United xG
1.46AFC Leopards xG
36%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–120%
0–215%
0–014%
1–110%
1–28%
0–37%
From our goals model: Mathare United 0.5 – 1.5 AFC Leopards expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AFC Leopards to win
62%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
AFC Leopards or draw
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AFC Leopards / FT AFC Leopards
37%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
20%
4.95
–
Form
Mathare United – last 2
LD
25 Feb
vs Shabana
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Kariobangi Sharks
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
AFC Leopards – last 4
WLWD
1 Mar
vs Shabana
5–1
W
26 Feb
@ KCB
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Posta Rangers FC
2–1
W
14 Feb
@ Bandari
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mathare United and AFC Leopards.
What is the prediction for Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
Our pick is AFC Leopards or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
On our numbers Mathare United have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AFC Leopards 62%.
How many goals will there be in Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 36% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
Our predicted score is Mathare United 0–1 AFC Leopards, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mathare United vs AFC Leopards?
Mathare United vs AFC Leopards (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Moi International Sports Centre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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