Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Nairobi United to win @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNairobi United to win ✓52% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓15% · fair 6.49
Sofapaka vs Nairobi United preview and prediction
The match
Sofapaka host Nairobi United in the FKF Premier League on Saturday 14 March, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT) at Kasarani Annex Stadium.
Form guide
Sofapaka's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Mara Sugar 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Nairobi United's last 4: DDWL Most recently they drew with KCB 1–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Nairobi United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.8 for Sofapaka and 1.3 for Nairobi United. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sofapaka 26%, draw 22%, Nairobi United 52%.
Value angle: Nairobi United to win at 2.05 – 52% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Sofapaka 0–1 Nairobi United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sofapaka26%fair 3.85 · @3.25
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.10
Nairobi United52%fair 1.93 · @2.05
2.16Expected goals
0.82Sofapaka xG
1.34Nairobi United xG
42%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
1–113%
0–011%
0–210%
1–09%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sofapaka 0.8 – 1.3 Nairobi United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nairobi United to win✓
52%
1.93
2.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nairobi United / FT Nairobi United✓
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
15%
6.49
–
Form
Sofapaka – last 4
LLLL
2 Mar
@ Mara Sugar
1–3
L
26 Feb
vs Police
0–2
L
20 Feb
@ Homeboyz
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Nairobi United – last 4
DDWL
4 Mar
vs KCB
1–1
D
25 Feb
@ Bandari
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Bidco United
3–0
W
15 Feb
@ Maniema Union
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sofapaka and Nairobi United.
What is the prediction for Sofapaka vs Nairobi United?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Sofapaka vs Nairobi United?
On our numbers Sofapaka have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Nairobi United 52%.
How many goals will there be in Sofapaka vs Nairobi United?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sofapaka vs Nairobi United?
Our predicted score is Sofapaka 0–1 Nairobi United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Sofapaka vs Nairobi United?
Sofapaka vs Nairobi United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Kasarani Annex Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Bidco United1