Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPolice to win ✓53% · @1.95
Double chancePolice or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · fair 1.59
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.73
Sofapaka vs Police preview and prediction
The match
The FKF Premier League sees Sofapaka take on Police on Thursday 26 February, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Kasarani Annex Stadium.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.5 for Sofapaka and 1.2 for Police. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sofapaka 19%, draw 29%, Police 53%.
Safer route: Police or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Police or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Sofapaka 0–1 Police. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sofapaka19%fair 5.40 · @3.80
Draw29%fair 3.45 · @2.90
Police53%fair 1.90 · @1.95
1.72Expected goals
0.54Sofapaka xG
1.18Police xG
37%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–018%
0–213%
1–111%
1–010%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sofapaka 0.5 – 1.2 Police expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Sofapaka
Police
Attack vs FKF Premier League average
-28%
-14%
Goals conceded vs average
+59%
-36%
Our expected goals here
0.53
1.20
Our own ratings from every FKF Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Police to win✓
53%
1.90
1.95
Double chance
Police or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Police / FT Police✓
30%
3.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
21%
4.73
–
Form
Sofapaka – last 2
LL
20 Feb
@ Homeboyz
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Murang'a SEAL
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Police – last 2
DD
22 Feb
vs APS Bomet
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Ulinzi Stars
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sofapaka and Police.
Our pick is Police or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sofapaka vs Police?
On our numbers Sofapaka have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Police 53%.
How many goals will there be in Sofapaka vs Police?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sofapaka vs Police?
Our predicted score is Sofapaka 0–1 Police, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Sofapaka vs Police?
Sofapaka vs Police (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Kasarani Annex Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ulinzi Stars1
Homeboyz1
APS Bomet0
Kariobangi Sharks1
Bidco United2
Mara Sugar2