Value bet: Wellington Phoenix to win @ 3.55 – our chance 35% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBrisbane Roar to win ✗44% · @1.97
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.29
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix preview and prediction
The match
Wellington Phoenix travel to Suncorp Stadium in the A League on Saturday 21 March (05:00 WAT) to face Brisbane Roar. Brisbane Roar are 3rd with 7 points from 3 games (in the top four), while Wellington Phoenix sit 1st on 10 points (top of the table). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Brisbane Roar's last 4: DDLD Most recently they drew with Western Sydney Wanderers 2–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Wellington Phoenix's last 5: WDLLD Most recently they beat Perth Glory 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Brisbane Roar and 1.3 for Wellington Phoenix. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Wellington Phoenix to win at 3.55 – 35% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Brisbane Roar 1–1 Wellington Phoenix. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Brisbane Roar44%fair 2.27 · @1.97
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @3.55
Wellington Phoenix35%fair 2.82 · @3.55
2.78Expected goals
1.49Brisbane Roar xG
1.30Wellington Phoenix xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Brisbane Roar 1.5 – 1.3 Wellington Phoenix expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brisbane Roar to win✗
44%
2.27
1.97
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brisbane Roar / FT Brisbane Roar✗
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.29
–
Form
Brisbane Roar – last 4
DDLD
13 Mar
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–2
D
28 Feb
vs Perth Glory
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Sydney
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Melbourne Victory
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Wellington Phoenix – last 5
WDLLD
14 Mar
vs Perth Glory
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Adelaide United
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Sydney
0–1
L
21 Feb
vs Auckland
0–5
L
13 Feb
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brisbane Roar and Wellington Phoenix.
What is the prediction for Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
On our numbers Brisbane Roar have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Wellington Phoenix 35%.
How many goals will there be in Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
Our predicted score is Brisbane Roar 1–1 Wellington Phoenix, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix?
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix (A League) kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Suncorp Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
