Şimal travel to ASCO Arena in the Birinci Dasta on Thursday 16 April (14:00 WAT) to face Səbail. Səbail are 5th with 12 points from 7 games (in the top half), while Şimal sit 6th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Səbail's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Safa Baku 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Şimal's last 5: LLDLW Most recently they lost to Mingəçevir 0–3 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Səbail arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Səbail and 0.6 for Şimal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Səbail 73%, draw 17%, Şimal 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.15.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.15, above our fair price of 1.89, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Səbail 2–1 Şimal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Səbail73%fair 1.36 · @1.15
Draw17%fair 5.96 · @6.00
Şimal10%fair 10.12 · @11.00
2.76Expected goals
2.14Səbail xG
0.62Şimal xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–015%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–16%
From our goals model: Səbail 2.1 – 0.6 Şimal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Səbail to win✓
73%
1.36
1.15
Double chance
Səbail or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Səbail ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Səbail / FT Səbail✓
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.16
–
Form
Səbail – last 6
LWDWWD
9 Apr
@ Safa Baku
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Baku Sportinq
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs MOIK
2–2
D
12 Mar
@ Mingəçevir
1–0
W
6 Mar
@ Cəbrayıl
4–1
W
24 Feb
vs Baku Sportinq
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Şimal – last 6
LLDLWW
9 Apr
vs Mingəçevir
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Şahdağ
0–1
L
19 Mar
vs Zaqatala
0–0
D
11 Mar
vs Safa Baku
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Zaqatala
4–3
W
24 Feb
vs Cəbrayıl
3–2
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Səbail and Şimal.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Səbail vs Şimal?
On our numbers Səbail have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Şimal 10%.
How many goals will there be in Səbail vs Şimal?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Səbail vs Şimal?
Our predicted score is Səbail 2–1 Şimal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Səbail vs Şimal?
Səbail vs Şimal (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at ASCO Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Safa Baku0
Difai Ağsu1