Value bet: Collerense to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMercadal to win ✗38% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · fair 1.99
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗8% · fair 12.20
Collerense vs Mercadal preview and prediction
The match
Collerense host Mercadal in the Tercera División RFEF Group 11 on Wednesday 4 March, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.5 for Collerense and 1.1 for Mercadal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Collerense to win at 2.90 – 37% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 51% chance at odds of 1.90. Predicted score: Collerense 1–1 Mercadal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Collerense37%fair 2.69 · @2.90
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.40
Mercadal38%fair 2.66 · @2.10
2.63Expected goals
1.49Collerense xG
1.14Mercadal xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Collerense 1.5 – 1.1 Mercadal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Collerense
Mercadal
Attack vs Tercera División RFEF Group 11 average
-11%
-32%
Goals conceded vs average
+15%
+21%
Our expected goals here
1.68
0.96
Our own ratings from every Tercera División RFEF Group 11 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mercadal to win✗
38%
2.66
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Collerense / FT Collerense✓
27%
3.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
8%
12.20
–
Form
Collerense – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Llosetense
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
4.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Mercadal – last 1
D
22 Feb
vs Peña Deportiva
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Collerense and Mercadal.
What is the prediction for Collerense vs Mercadal?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Collerense vs Mercadal?
On our numbers Collerense have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mercadal 38%.
How many goals will there be in Collerense vs Mercadal?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Collerense vs Mercadal?
Our predicted score is Collerense 1–1 Mercadal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Collerense vs Mercadal?
Collerense vs Mercadal (Tercera División RFEF Group 11) kicks off on Wednesday 4 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
