Value bet: Pasaia KE to win @ 2.70 – our chance 41% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPasaia KE to win ✓41% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.19
Zarautz vs Pasaia KE preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 4 sees Zarautz take on Pasaia KE on Thursday 19 March, kicking off at 15:45 (WAT) at Estadio Asti Kirol Instalakuntzak.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Zarautz and 1.2 for Pasaia KE. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zarautz 36%, draw 23%, Pasaia KE 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Pasaia KE to win at 2.70 – 41% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.80, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Zarautz 1–1 Pasaia KE. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zarautz36%fair 2.76 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.25
Pasaia KE41%fair 2.45 · @2.70
2.27Expected goals
1.09Zarautz xG
1.18Pasaia KE xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Zarautz 1.1 – 1.2 Pasaia KE expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pasaia KE to win✓
41%
2.45
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pasaia KE / FT Pasaia KE✗
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.19
–
Form
Zarautz – last 1
L
1 Mar
@ Eibar III
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Pasaia KE – last 1
W
22 Feb
@ San Ignacio
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zarautz and Pasaia KE.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
On our numbers Zarautz have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pasaia KE 41%.
How many goals will there be in Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
Our predicted score is Zarautz 1–1 Pasaia KE, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Zarautz vs Pasaia KE?
Zarautz vs Pasaia KE (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Asti Kirol Instalakuntzak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Portugalete2
Zamudio0