Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPortugalete to win ✓69% · @1.25
Double chancePortugalete or draw ✓91% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓14% · fair 7.38
Portugalete vs Zamudio preview and prediction
The match
Portugalete host Zamudio in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 on Thursday 19 March, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT) at Estadio La Florida.
Form guide
Zamudio's last 4: LLLW Most recently they lost to Derio 1–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.1 for Portugalete and 0.7 for Zamudio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Portugalete to win – a 69% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Portugalete 2–0 Zamudio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portugalete69%fair 1.45 · @1.25
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @5.00
Zamudio9%fair 11.16 · @8.50
2.81Expected goals
2.12Portugalete xG
0.69Zamudio xG
55%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Portugalete 2.1 – 0.7 Zamudio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Portugalete to win✓
69%
1.45
1.25
Double chance
Portugalete or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Portugalete ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Portugalete / FT Portugalete✓
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
14%
7.38
–
Form
Portugalete – last 2
DW
15 Mar
@ Santurtzi
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Lagun Onak
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Zamudio – last 4
LLLW
8 Mar
@ Derio
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Touring
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Deportivo Alavés III
0–5
L
15 Feb
vs Aurrerá Vitoria
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portugalete and Zamudio.
What is the prediction for Portugalete vs Zamudio?
Our pick is Portugalete to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Portugalete vs Zamudio?
On our numbers Portugalete have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Zamudio 9%.
How many goals will there be in Portugalete vs Zamudio?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portugalete vs Zamudio?
Our predicted score is Portugalete 2–0 Zamudio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Portugalete vs Zamudio?
Portugalete vs Zamudio (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Florida.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Zarautz0
Pasaia KE3
Derio4
Durango0