Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Derio to win @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerio to win ✓60% · @1.80
Double chanceDerio or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.11
Derio vs Durango preview and prediction
The match
Derio host Durango in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 on Thursday 19 March, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo. Derio are 5th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Durango sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Derio's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Aretxabaleta 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Derio and 0.8 for Durango. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 47%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derio 60%, draw 20%, Durango 19%.
Safer route: Derio or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Derio to win at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Derio or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Derio 1–0 Durango. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derio60%fair 1.66 · @1.80
Draw20%fair 4.94 · @3.50
Durango19%fair 5.17 · @3.60
2.48Expected goals
1.69Derio xG
0.80Durango xG
47%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Derio 1.7 – 0.8 Durango expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derio to win✓
60%
1.66
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Derio or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derio / FT Derio✓
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.11
–
Form
Derio – last 3
WWD
15 Mar
@ Aretxabaleta
2–1
W
8 Mar
vs Zamudio
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ Santurtzi
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Durango – last 2
LW
21 Feb
@ Leioa
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Eibar III
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derio and Durango.
Our pick is Derio or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Derio vs Durango?
On our numbers Derio have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Durango 19%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Durango?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Durango?
Our predicted score is Derio 1–0 Durango, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Durango?
Derio vs Durango (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Portugalete2
Zamudio0
Zarautz0