Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTropezón to win ✗66% · @1.50
Double chanceTropezón or draw ✗88% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.80
Barquereño vs Tropezón preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 3 sees Barquereño take on Tropezón on Wednesday 25 February, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio El Castañar. Barquereño are 14th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Tropezón sit 1st on 26 points (top of the table). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Barquereño and 1.9 for Tropezón. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 53% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tropezón to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Barquereño 0–1 Tropezón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Barquereño12%fair 8.35 · @6.00
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.80
Tropezón66%fair 1.52 · @1.50
2.56Expected goals
0.67Barquereño xG
1.89Tropezón xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–39%
0–08%
From our goals model: Barquereño 0.7 – 1.9 Tropezón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tropezón to win✗
66%
1.52
1.50
Double chance
Tropezón or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Tropezón ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tropezón / FT Tropezón✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.80
–
Form
Barquereño
No recent results on record.
Tropezón – last 2
WL
22 Feb
@ Selaya
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Laredo
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barquereño and Tropezón.
What is the prediction for Barquereño vs Tropezón?
Our pick is Tropezón to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Barquereño vs Tropezón?
On our numbers Barquereño have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tropezón 66%.
How many goals will there be in Barquereño vs Tropezón?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barquereño vs Tropezón?
Our predicted score is Barquereño 0–1 Tropezón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Barquereño vs Tropezón?
Barquereño vs Tropezón (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Castañar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Noja0