Guarnizo travel to Estadio El Castañal in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 on Wednesday 25 February (19:00 WAT) to face Selaya. Selaya are 16th with 7 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Guarnizo sit 13th on 8 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.8 for Selaya and 1.2 for Guarnizo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Selaya 28%, draw 22%, Guarnizo 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.05.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.05, above our fair price of 1.90, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Selaya 1–1 Guarnizo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Selaya28%fair 3.57 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.10
Guarnizo50%fair 2.01 · @2.00
2.07Expected goals
0.82Selaya xG
1.25Guarnizo xG
53%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
1–113%
0–013%
1–010%
0–210%
1–28%
From our goals model: Selaya 0.8 – 1.2 Guarnizo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guarnizo to win✓
50%
2.01
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Guarnizo / FT Guarnizo✓
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.38
–
Form
Selaya – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Tropezón
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Guarnizo – last 2
LW
21 Feb
vs Gimnástica Torrelavega
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Revilla
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Selaya and Guarnizo.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Selaya vs Guarnizo?
On our numbers Selaya have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Guarnizo 50%.
How many goals will there be in Selaya vs Guarnizo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Selaya vs Guarnizo?
Our predicted score is Selaya 1–1 Guarnizo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Selaya vs Guarnizo?
Selaya vs Guarnizo (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Castañal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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