Value bet: Vigor Lamezia to win @ 3.70 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultGelbison to win45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win78% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.22
Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia preview and prediction
The match
Gelbison host Vigor Lamezia in the Serie D Girone I on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Valentino Giordano.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Gelbison and 1.1 for Vigor Lamezia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Vigor Lamezia to win at 3.70 – 32% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Gelbison 1–1 Vigor Lamezia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gelbison45%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.15
Vigor Lamezia32%fair 3.09 · @3.70
2.39Expected goals
1.33Gelbison xG
1.06Vigor Lamezia xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Gelbison 1.3 – 1.1 Vigor Lamezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gelbison to win
45%
2.20
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.79
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gelbison / FT Gelbison
25%
4.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.22
–
Form
Gelbison – last 2
WW
22 Feb
@ Vibonese
4–0
W
15 Feb
vs Ragusa
2–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vigor Lamezia – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Reggina
2–0
W
15 Feb
@ Nissa
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gelbison and Vigor Lamezia.
What is the prediction for Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
On our numbers Gelbison have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vigor Lamezia 32%.
How many goals will there be in Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
Our predicted score is Gelbison 1–1 Vigor Lamezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia?
Gelbison vs Vigor Lamezia (Serie D Girone I) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Valentino Giordano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Savoia2
Messina1